# The only allowed bullish EW count here on the hourly is for a very bullish 1-2, i-ii pattern; if this count is valid, we should see SPX at least at the SPX 4500 level on Tuesday’s close.
# If the bearish count is working, we should see the SPX close below 4400 on Tuesday.
# Rumors of an imminent Russian invasion of the Ukraine permeated the markets Friday afternoon and the SPX may have already priced in that risk.
# The bulls have two things going early Monday; 1) Fed President Bullard will be interviewed pre-market Monday and will definitely attempt to “walk back” his comment of a 0.50% rate cut in March and, 2) if the Russians haven’t invaded the Ukraine, the markets should bounce on that news.
# Still, even though we believe that 2022 will be a bear-market year, we believe that we saw a “final blow off” rally in stocks begin at SPX 4222 on 1/24 and that a fierce short-covering rally will take both the SPX and NDX to new all-time highs in the next few weeks...
# Be agile, cash is still our largest position (~50%) and our best asset in this volatile market, but we have some SPY shares to play the short-covering rally in the SPX.
# Bitcoin is testing S1 pivot support at 41807 Sunday night; hopefully the end of an EW a-b-c correction.
# Crude oil defied our short-term call for a top and exploded higher Sunday night to test $95. Even so, the BPENER (bullish percent for energy stocks) is at 100%, pretty toppy here in the short term for oil stocks.
# Gold exploded higher to test $1864 Friday evening on a risk-off move, a weekly close above $1860 is significant to keep us bullish.
# Silver is testing $23.8 Sunday evening;- we need to see a move above $23.90 early Monday to keep us long.
# Bonds got shredded after a hot CPI report and the 10-yr US rate rallied to 2.063% on Friday, the highest since 2019.
# The USD tested 96.10 Sunday evening and remains close to the 96 level that has provided support for months now....
