vrijdag 6 juli 2018

Unemployment Rate Rises As June Payrolls Rise 213K, All Part-Time Workers, As Full-Time Jobs Drop!

Moments ago the BLS gave us the answer, and contrary to whispers of a miss to the 195K consensus expectation, in June the US labor market continued to chug along, with some 213K jobs created, stronger than expected, while May's +223K payrolls were also revised higher to +244K. According to the household survey, the number of people employed also rose from 155,474K to 155,576K, an increase of 102K workers, while the number of unemployed Americans jumped by 499K from 6.065MM to 6.564MM...


Going further back, The April payrolls change was revised up from +159Kto +175K. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 37,000 more than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 211,000 per month over the last 3 months. Yet while the payrolls report was solid, there was some disappointment in the Average Hourly Earnings print, which missed expectations of a 2.8% Y/Y increases, rising by 72 cents or 2.7%, unchanged from last month, with the monthly increase of 0.2% also missing the expected number of 0.3%. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and non-supervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $22.62 in June...


# While the headline prints in today's jobs report were solid with the exception of hourly earnings, which disappointed consensus expectations on both a monthly and annual basis, however not too dramatically earning the report a "goldilocks" name, a look below the surface reveals at least one ugly side to today's jobs report: all the job gains were for part-time workers, while full-time employment dipped modestly. In June, the number of part-time workers rose by 145K to 27.028MM, while the full-time workers declined by a modest 89K to 128.658MM...


On a longer-term basis, however, this month's jump in part-time workers appears to be an outlier, with the bulk of job additions in the past year manifesting in the form of full time jobs...


Finally, the part-time print may merely be a statistical anomaly, because on an unadjusted basis full-time workers surged by over 900K, while part-timers actually dropped by just under 500K. Still, this is a series worth keeping an eye on as an increase in part-time workers at the expense of full-timers may explain the ongoing inability of a tight labor market to translate into higher wages, which as a reminder, was the biggest disappointment in this jobs report.