maandag 9 juli 2018

BTFTWD Continues, But Bonds Ain't Buying It!

Trade Wars, Schmade Wars...


While China had suffered more heading into the actual trade war, it has outperformed US since...


Futures show the dip-buying exuberance from the moment Trump announced the trade war and china responded...


And Cash markets, helped by a supposed 'Goldilocks' payrolls print haven't looked back...


The Dow blew past its 50- and 100DMAs back to try and fill the June 18th gap...


The S&P is following a very familiar path...


As Bloomberg reports, so far the recovery path of the S&P 500 following the selloff that started in January looks remarkably similar to the average path following the previous four corrections since 2010, despite the fact we are in the midst of a trade war. If it continues, the S&P would reach a new high by the second week of August. Today's opening ramp was yet another major short-squeeze, but it ran out of ammo quickly...


Treasury yields were higher on the day...


But remain largely unimpressed by equity's exuberance at the trade war...


The yield curve erased the post-payrolls drop today with 2s30s limping back above 40bps...


The dollar rebounded during the day, erasing overnight weakness for the first positive close in 5 days. NOTE that the dollar filled the gap from Payrolls on Friday then started to fade...


Cable was volatile in the last 24 hours as traders tried to game out the potential softness or hardness of the eventual brexit as May's government collapses around her...


Cryptos faded on the day, but Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum remain green from Friday's close...