vrijdag 29 juni 2018

The Atlanta And St.Louis Feds Just Slashed Q2 GDP

Just two days after Donald Trump Jr slammed "the experts" and crowed of expectations for a 4.5% Q2 GDP print, The Atlanta Fed took an ax to its forecast this morning following disappointing spending data...


The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on June 29, down from 4.5 percent on June 27. The nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.7 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis...


Of course, as we noted previously, this should come as no surprise to anyone who has tracked GDPNOW over the last few years, GDPNOW is notoriously over-optimistic and ubiquitously downgraded as the quarter goes on...


And Q1 was a doozy (remember, Q1 GDP forecast began at 5.376%!! and ended at 2)...


Nobody tell the Trumps though. And definitely don't show them the St.Louis Fed GDP Nowcast, it just collapsed from 3.44$ to 1.29%!!