woensdag 9 augustus 2017

Wednesday Market Observations

# Big Picture; The stock indices are trying to hold up into the 8/21 solar eclipse after which we expect market weakness from August through October (a Wave 4). An explosive 5th wave higher should be underway by late October and could take the QQQ to highs for the year by December.
# After testing new high ground at 2490 intra-day in a dramatic 5th wave spike above the contracting triangle, the SPX reversed down to give us a key reversal day as it closed below the SPX 2479 pivot resistance once again. The SPX blew off into the Full Moon/lunar eclipse time window, which extended into yesterday and should be a Short-term top. Our bias is that the market will hold up into our 8/20-8/21 projected turn window, but we may see a pullback into the 8/11 turn window first. The 10-day winning streak in the DJIA ended yesterday and this may have been a blow off.
# Gold corrected hard into the Full Moon Timing Window yesterday and gave us a late bounce. We rallied in 5-waves from 7/10 into 7/27 and pulled back in 3-waves into yesterday, this is bullish action. The Comex gold and silver COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low on 7/10, but the GDX/GLD ratio is still not giving us a break out signal. We are looking for one by 8/13. A breakout higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is needed to confirm a 3rd wave higher for gold and silver off the 7/10 low.
# The COTs are screaming that silver is a major buy here, as we declined into yesterday's Full Moon Timing Window. S. ilver also gave us a bullish divergence against gold's lower low. We are close to the start of a 3rd of a 3rd wave higher off the February 2016 low.
# Bonds gave us just a weak bounce late in the day as the SPX surrendered its early gains
# The USD may have finished an EW a-b-c bounce yesterday. Our bias is that we have started a major bear market in the USD and the uptrend in commodities since May should have legs....