dinsdag 1 augustus 2017

Tuesday Market Observations

# The SPX gave us another gap-up open that failed at the SPX 2479 pivot resistance even though the DJIA made another all-time high. So the SPX gave us a 3-wave bounce into Monday / Tuesday (B-Wave?), and we're expecting a C-Wave down starting on Tuesday / Wednesday. The markets needs to prove themselves first by declining below SPX 2459.93 to confirm a 7/27 High was in; Target gap fill SPX 2430-2440 (and QQQ 139-140). Our three consecutive sell signals in the CBOE equity put/call ratio kicked in on Thursday; the corrective bounce from Thursday into Monday's close argues for more down on Tuesday / Wednesday. Apple's earnings Tuesday after the close should be a big mover / catalyst for the market. The upside into August 20 looks limited to us. it will take a daily close above pivot resistance at SPX 2479 to get us bullish.
# Gold and silver may have finished a 5th wave higher on Friday and just corrected sideways into Monday. The Comex gold COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low on 7/10. We're expecting GLD and SLV to capture a big rally into October and beyond. Gold may test $1300 this week.
# The COTs are screaming that silver is a major buy here on dips. We are close to the start of a 3rd of a 3rd wave higher off the February 2016 low.
# We think that crude oil made a major low at $42. The OIH may have made an important low on 7/24. We still think that oil stocks could make a big run into our yearly time target at 8/20.
# Bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c bounce on Friday.
# The USD is in an entrenched downtrend, but we are in the important 92-94 multi-year support band so a sizable bounce could develop. Our bias is that we have started a major bear market and the uptrend in commodities since May should have legs. The $DXY is trying to bounce, but looking weak. A close below 92 could start a rout....