dinsdag 8 augustus 2017

Tuesday Market Observations

# Big picture; The stock indices are trying to hold up into the 8/21 solar eclipse, after which we expect market weakness from August through October (a Wave 4?). An explosive 5th wave higher should be underway by late October and could take us to new highs by December.
# The DJIA made another all-time high and the SPX broke above its contracting triangle (False Move?) which has contained price action since 7/27. We are cognizant of the Full Moon/lunar eclipse today and this could be a short-term top.
# Gold and silver are correcting into the 8/7 Full Moon Timing Window. The Comex gold and silver COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low on 7/10. We're watching the GDX/GLD ratio closely for a bullish break out signal. A breakout higher in the GDX/GLD ratio would confirm a 3rd wave higher for gold and silver off the 7/10 low. we are looking for a reversal higher on Tuesday.
# Silver is a major buy here as we declined into today's Full Moon. We are close to the start of a 3rd of a 3rd wave higher off the February 2016 low.
# Crude oil pulled back correctively into today's Full Moon and then reversed higher. # Bonds just made a corrective bounce from Friday, bearish.
# The USD is giving us an oversold bounce in a bear market that has more to go. We could see one more leg higher into early Tuesday. Our bias is that we have started a major bear market and the uptrend in commodities since May should have legs....