donderdag 10 augustus 2017

Thursday Market Observations

# Big Picture; The stock indices are trying to hold up into the 8/21 solar eclipse, after which we expect market weakness from August through October (a Wave 4 on the daily chart). An explosive 5th wave higher should be underway by late October and could take the QQQ to highs for the year by December.
# We're looking for a quick correction from the 8/7-8/8 Full Moon/lunar eclipse time window into the 8/11 turn window. Our target is a gap-fill at SPX 2430-2440 and QQQ 139-140 before a reversal up. Our bias is that the market will hold up into our 8/20-8/21 projected turn window which includes the 8/21 solar eclipse and make highs for the summer.
# The SPX made lows for the day early yesterday's session and closed at session highs, but we're still looking for a C-Wave down of a quick EW a-b-c correction into 8/11 which should target the gap-fill target at SPX 2430-2440 which should target the gap-fill target at SPX 2430-2440. We will then look for a reversal higher into the 8/20-8/21 turn window.
# Gold rallied yesterday and closed above $1280. The Comex gold and silver COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low on 7/10, but the GDX/GLD ratio is still not giving us a break out signal. So gold may only give us another failed test of $1300 on this run. A breakout higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is needed to confirm a 3rd wave higher for gold and silver off the 7/10 low.
# The USD took out Tuesday's high yesterday, but this rally just looks like a corrective bounce to us. Our bias is that we have started a major bear market in the USD and the uptrend in commodities since May should have legs....