woensdag 9 augustus 2017

The Streak Is Over; Dow Closes Lower As Early Euphoria Fades Amid "Fire And Fury"

"Unleash Hell"...


It seemed like a done deal early on as the panic-buying sent stocks soaring to new record highs but some North Korea headlines and Jeff Gundlach's warnings seemed to turn the market and investors were in tenterhooks into the close to see if VIX-clubbing could keep the Dow winning streak alive. But then Trump dropped the "fire and fury" line and all hell broke loose. VIX above 11!!


A big short-squeeze, extended by JOLTS, sparked panic-buying into and beyond the European close but it soon faded and stocks clung to the unch-line until President Trump dropped the "Fire and Fury" speech...


Futures show the crazy swings best...


The S&P's lack of movement continues, for the 15th day; 2474, 2473, 2473, 2470, 2477, 2478, 2475, 2472, 2470, 2476, 2478, 2472, 2477, 2481, 2474!


FANG Stocks dumped, erasing yesterday's gains...


Interestingly, USDJPY and S&P Futs decoupled shortly after North Korea headlines and by the close, stock traders had been forced back to reality...


Clear safe-haven buying in bonds and bullion when Trump dropped the "fire and fury" speech...


The Dollar Index ramped higher on JOLTS data, running stops from Friday's payrolls spike, then fading to close marginally higher...


Treasury yields rose on the day but Trump's North Korea tirade sparked some safe haven buying... 


The curve steepened with 30Y underperforming...


Gold spiked back up to unchanged on the Trump comments...


WTI closed lower, coiling up into the API data tonight...


Still we are sure this is just dip in stocks that should be bought, because the disconnect between hope and reality has never been so wide...


The exuberant-sounding earnings growth (thanks to depression-like base effects) are not showing up in forward-looking expectations for growth...