vrijdag 11 augustus 2017

Friday Market Observations

# The SPX plunged hard and giving us a quick correction on Geo-political fears fueled on tensions with NK, but our short-term analysis remains the same. We got a C-wave down and the SPX closed Thursday in the gap-fill zone SPX 2430-2440, so our target has been essentially met. We looked for a quick correction from the 8/7-8/8 Full Moon/lunar eclipse time window into the 8/11 turn window and we are mostly there. Solar-lunar cycles argue for some kind of trading low Friday and the start for a big reversal on Friday. This bounce in the SPX could be corrective or a test of the highs. The nature of the bounce will tell us a lot. Our bias is that the market will hold up into our 8/20-8/21 projected turn window which includes the 8/21 solar eclipse before seasonal weakness into October begins.
# Gold got a strong bid yesterday and closed above $1290. The Comex gold and silver COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low on 7/10, but the GDX/GLD ratio is still not giving us a break out signal, so gold may only give us another failed test of $1300 on this run. A breakout higher in the GDX/GLD ratio is needed to confirm a 3rd wave higher for gold and silver off the 7/10 low.
# Silver has given us a nice short-covering of $1.00 from the Full Moon Timing Window on 8/8. We are looking for a pullback to start Friday. We are close to the start of a 3rd of a 3rd wave higher off the February 2016 low.
# Crude oil pulled back hard yesterday.
# Bonds rallied hard thursday on the pressure down in stocks.
# The USD has rallied in 5-waves on the hourly chart and just corrected in 3-waves. More rally is expected on Friday. Our bias is still that we have started a major bear market in the USD....