woensdag 26 juli 2017

Wednesday Market Observations

# The SPX rallied in an hourly EW 5-wave pattern into Tuesday after a monthly expiration. With the Fed minutes today and many high-profile earnings, we expect some market volatility. After three consecutive sell signals on the 5-day MA of the CBOE equity put/call ratio last week, we could still see a pullback to test the 7/12 gap at SPX 2430-2440. The QQQ may try a gap-fill of 139-140 before a rally into August into our 8/20 time target
# Gold and silver both rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern into early Monday. We are looking for a corrective pullback into Wednesday's Fed minutes. The Comex gold COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low in the 7/10 Full Moon Timing Window. We are scaling into longs on GLD to capture a big rally into October.
# The COTs are screaming that silver is a major buy here on dips. A corrective pullback into the Wednesday FOMC minutes will be a buy. We may see a screaming short-covering rally start after the FOMC minutes.
# Crude oil made an important low at $42 and the OIH (oil services) may have made an important low Monday. We think oil could make a big run into 8/20.
# Bonds got hit hard on Tuesday as the risk-off trade sold off.
# The USD made lower lows on Friday and is in an entrenched downtrend, but the FOMC minutes could give us a bounce. Our bias is that we have started a major bear market....