maandag 3 juli 2017

US Manufacturing Schizophrenia Continues; Best ISM Since Aug 2014, Worst PMI Since Dec 2016

US Manufacturing stumbled to its lowest since Dec 2016 according to the latest 'soft' survey from Markit, as respondents reported a "disappointing end to the second quarter, with few signs of growth picking up any time soon." However, if ISM's seasonal adjustments are listened to, US Manufacturing just surged to its highest since Aug 2014...


Under the covers of the ISM data, everything is awesome...


Which is an oddly divergent picture from the one painted by Markit respondents; Commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “Manufacturers reported a disappointing end to the second quarter, with few signs of growth picking up any time soon. “The PMI has been sliding lower since the peak seen in January and the June reading points to a stagnation, at best, in the official manufacturing output data. “The survey’s employment index meanwhile suggests that factories will make little or no contribution to non-farm payroll growth in June. “Forward looking indicators, notably a further slowdown in inflows of new business to a nine-month low and a sharp drop in the new orders to inventory ratio, suggest that the risks are weighted to the downside for coming months. “Any good news was saved for inflation, with price pressures easing substantially in June on the back of waning global commodity prices.” It's probably transitory though...