dinsdag 25 juli 2017

Tuesday Market Observations

# The turn window for this week is 7/25-7/26. The Tuesday after a monthly expiration is a turn day in our work.
# The QQQ made an EW 5-waves up on the daily and a new high, but the SPX remained below pivot resistance at 2479. We'll see if Tuesday can turn the tape down. With the Fed minutes on Wednesday and many high-profile earnings, we expect some market volatility. After three consecutive sell signals on the 5-day MA of the CBOE equity put/call ratio last week, we could still see a pullback to test the 7/12 gap at SPX 2430-2440 or QQQ 139-140. This kind of pullback would calls for another leg up into August.
# Gold and silver both rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern into early Monday. We are looking for a corrective pullback into Wednesday's Fed minutes. The Comex gold COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low on 7/10. We are expecting a big rally into October.
# The COTs are screaming that silver is a major buy here on dips. A corrective pullback into the Wednesday FOMC minutes will be a buy.
# Crude oil made an important low at $42 and the OIH (oil services) may have made an important low yesterday. We think the oil sector could make a big run into 8/20.
# Bonds pulled back Monday as the risk-off assets corrected.
# The USD is in an entrenched downtrend but is due a bounce, we may have started a major bear market. The FOMC minutes should give us a bounce....