donderdag 27 juli 2017

Thursday Market Observations

# The most important factor in today's market analysis is the major bear market underway in the USD.
# Pivot resistance at SPX 2479 still held the market back after the FOMC minutes. We're looking for a daily close above SPX 2479 for a move above SPX 2500 into our yearly target window around 8/20. Our CBOE equity put/call ratio sell signals have only given us a sideways market instead of a Pullback. It is possible that the 7/12 gaps are "breakaway gaps" and the QQQ and SPY could just keep moving higher without significant correction. A daily close above pivot resistance at SPX 2479 should ignite a rally to our 8/20 time target.
# Gold made a major low in the 7/10 Full Moon Timing Window and rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern on the hourly into Monday morning. We only got a corrective pullback into Wednesday's FOMC minutes before a rally into the close. The Comex gold COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low on 7/10. We ar looking for a big rally into October.
# For silver a screaming short-covering rally may have started after the FOMC minutes.
# We think that crude oil made a major low at $42. The OIH may have made an important low Monday. We think the oil sector could make a big run into 8/20. # Bonds rallied after the dovish FOMC minutes.
# The USD is in an entrenched downtrend. The small bounce into the FOMC minutes was retraced quickly after the announcement. Our bias is that we have started a major bear market. This is giving a bid to commodities across the board....