donderdag 20 juli 2017

Thursday Market Observations

# The turn window for this week is 7/21 which includes the monthly option expiration.
# The SPX, NDX and Russell 2000 are being pulled up into the 7/21 high-energy turn window. This could mark a short-term high. Yesterday we got a sell signal on the 5-day MA of the CBOE equity put/call ratio (below .60) and the QQQ only managed a low-volume test of the previous high at 143.8, which implies a pullback. After this dip we could run into 8/20...

# Gold and silver rallied in an EW 5-wave pattern from the Full Moon into early 7/12 before correcting into 7/13. We are bullish, because the Comex gold COTs are arguing that the PMs have made a major low. We are scaling into longs on Gold. Gold corrected in a sideways 4th wave yesterday. we're looking for a 5th wave higher early Thursday.
# Crude oil gave us an EW 5-waves rally from the 7/10 Full Moon Timing Window into early 7/12 and then a 3-wave correction. We are bullish about Crude. We think the oil sector is making a major low here and should make a big run into 8/20.
# Depressed bond sentiment argues for a bounce.
# The USD is in an entrenched down channel and a test of 95 looks close at hand. Commodities are starting to move up across the board....