maandag 31 juli 2017

Monday Market Observations

# The turn windows for this week are 7/31 and 8/4. There is a lunar eclipse on 8/7.
# The SPX peaked on 7/27 in the time window of the 55-week step out from the important 6/27 post-Brexit low and this correction may have more down on Monday / Tuesday. Our three consecutive sell signals in the CBOE equity put/call ratio may have kicked in on Thursday. The corrective bounce from Thursday into Friday's close argues for more down and breaking lower would argue that the "Big Correction" is underway. The target would be the 7/12 chart gap SPX 2430-2440...


# The Siderograph chart is projecting an Aug 18 bottom...


# The NDX gave us just a 3-wave corrective bounce (B-Wave) on Friday. We could see a C-Wave down on Monday to fill the 7/12 gap at 139-140.
# Gold and silver may have finished a 5th wave higher on Friday to complete the rally pattern from 7/26. The Comex gold COTs are arguing that the PMs made a major low in the 7/10 Full Moon Timing Window. We plan to buy GLD on dips Monday to capture a big rally into October and beyond. Gold may test $1300 this week.
# The COTs are screaming that silver is a major buy here on dips.
# Crude oil made an important low at $42 and the OIH (oil services) may have made an important low on 7/24.We still think that oil stocks could make a big run into 8/20
# Bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c bounce on Friday.
# The USD is in an entrenched downtrend, but we are in the important 92-94 multi-year support band, so a sizable bounce could develop. Our bias is that we have started a major bear market and this idea is underappreciated by most market analysts. The $DXY is trying to bounce, but is looking weak. A close below 92 could start a rout....