maandag 10 juli 2017

Monday Market Observations

# The SPX rallied on the strong NFP jobs report Friday and took out Thursday's high, but the volume was low. The SPX traced out a minimal EW a-b-c decline from 6/19 to 7/6. Taking out Thursday's low will argue for more subdivision down into our 7/23 time window. The XLF is making a B-Wave test of the 3/1 high and a C-Wave down is possible into 7/23. Watch for 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
# For the QQQ, we need to break below 135.54 to argue for more sub-division down. Even if the consolidation from 6/19 proves to be just a mild consolidation for technology stocks, we are still vulnerable to a normal bull market correction of 10% going into 7/23, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/19 highs in the NDX and SPX.
# After the June-July correction (a 4th wave?) runs its course in 7/23, we're expecting a SPX high for the year around August 20 (+/-3 trading days) with a minimum target of SPX 2480.
# Gold is pulling back into the Full Moon Timing Window. This should set up a bounce by 7/10. The GDX took out the 21.80 low on Monday but the pattern still looks like an EW a-b-c-d-e triangle on the daily chart that is close to completion. Wave "e" now looks 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
# Crude oil pulled back in 3-waves into the 7/9-7/10 Full moon Timing Window.
# The USD declined in 5-waves on the hourly after the strong NFP jobs report and is bouncing. The trend still appears down.