Prompted by growing interest among the hedge fund community, Goldman is dedicating increasingly more "bandwidth" to covering bitcoin, and judging by the bank's bullish bias, most of the "smart money" appears to be long the cryptocurrency. In a report posted overnight by Goldman's chief technician Sheba Jafari, she writes that since "Bitcoin is still within the limits of a well-defined range, it may need another few swing within the range before resuming its underlying trend" higher. Eventually, after some potential volatility that could send it as low as $1,786 "but not much further from there", Goldman expects the original cryptocurrency to surge to a "minimum target at 2,988 and scope to reach 3,691."
# Here is how Goldman reassures its nervous clients, many of whom appear to have bought BTC near its recent all time highs, that record highs in bitcoin are just a matter of time:
- As has been discussed in recent updates, Bitcoin is in wave IV of a V wave impulsive rally that began at the ‘11 low. It’s not uncommon for a 4th wave to be complex and time-consuming.
- The fact that the market is still unable to break above the key day high on Jun. 13th (3,000) increases the likelihood of this being a triangle. These triangles are typically characterized by five swings in either direction, making it an ABCDE sequence. If this is the correct interpretation, the next leg lower should retrace back towards the bottom of wave A (1,852) but no further than there.
- Alternatively, it could also be an ABC pattern in which case the market could make a marginal new low (to ~1,786) but again, not much further than there.
- Anything above 3,000 (Jun. 13th high) will suggest potential to have already started wave V, which again has a minimum target at 2,988 and scope to reach 3,691 (the latter being a preferred target as this assumes a new high). At this point, it seems reasonable to assume that the market is in a corrective process until there’s been real evidence of an impulsive advance...
Jafari's conclusion: "Consider range-bound/corrective below 3,000. Shouldn’t retrace much further than 1,857-1,787. Eventually see potential for 3,691."
While Goldman's sellside euphoria on bitcoin is tangible, one wonders if this is just the latest attempt by its prop desk to offload some holdings to institutional and retail traders who are a little late to the crypto party....