vrijdag 7 juli 2017

Friday Market Observations

# We hit our SPX 2450 target on 6/19 and then started a consolidation that could yield a 5-10% decline into 7/23.
# The SPX gave us a gap-down open yesterday and after a mid-session bounce we came down to close near the lows of the day. Most notable on Thursday was the NYSE Composite which made an all-time high in our 7/2-7/3 turn window and now has fallen in an EW 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
# The NDX gave us a gap-down open yesterday and we only bounced in a 3-wave corrective fashion. Now a C-Wave down is possible into 7/23, watch for 5-waves down on the hourly chart. For the QQQ, we need to break below 135.54 to argue for more sub-division down. Even if the consolidation from 6/19 proves to be just a mild consolidation for technology stocks, we are still vulnerable to a normal bull market correction of 10% going into 7/23, the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 6/19 highs in the NDX and SPX.
# After the June-July correction (a 4th wave?) runs its course, we're expecting a SPX high for the year around August 20 (+/-3 trading days) with a minimum target of SPX 2480.
# Gold is also pulling back into the 7/9 Full Moon Timing Window and todays NFP jobs-report. This could set up a bounce / reversal higher by Monday 7/10. The GDX took out the 21.80 low on Monday but the pattern still looks like an EW a-b-c-d-e triangle on the daily chart that is close to completion; wave "e" now looks 5-waves down on the hourly chart.
# Silver flashcrashed and declined in 5-waves on the hourly chart and took out the 5/9 low. We're looking for a bounce by Monday.
# Crude oil is pulling back into the 7/9-7/10 Full moon Timing Window. A Spike Down today?
# Bonds look 5-waves down on the hourly and ready for a bounce.
# How the USD handles Today's NFP jobs report will be key for the commodity trade, gold and crude oil....