maandag 31 juli 2017

Dallas Fed Activity Improves But Respondent Warns "Prospects For Better Are Dimming"

After peaking in February, Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Outlook has slid almost constantly until July which just saw it bounce modestly from 15.0 to 16.8 (stil below May's levels)...


Reading The Dallas Fed's breakdown reports, one wuld think everything is awesome!. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 11 points to 22.8, indicating output grew at a faster pace than in June. Other measures of current manufacturing activity also indicated a pickup in growth. The new orders and the growth rate of orders indexes rose several points each, coming in at 16.1 and 12.2, respectively. The capacity utilization index moved up to 18.1 and the shipments index increased three points to 11.6.
* Perceptions of broader business conditions improved again in July, with a sharp pickup in outlooks. The general business activity index edged up to 16.8, marking a 10th consecutive positive reading. The company outlook index jumped 15 points to 25.9, reaching its highest level since 2010.
* Labor market measures indicated slightly stronger employment gains and longer workweeks this month. The employment index has been positive all year and edged up to 11.2, its highest reading since the end of 2015. Twenty-one percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 9 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index ticked up to 9.8.
* Prices and wages continued to rise in July. The raw materials prices index held steady at 15.5, while the finished goods prices index moved up slightly to 5.6. The wages and benefits index remained somewhat elevated at 20.6.
* Expectations regarding future business conditions continued to reflect optimism. The indexes of future general business activity and future company outlook held steady at 31.6 and 34.8, respectively. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory.
*) But, respondents did not seem to be so exuberant...
- The foreign competition for new equipment is extremely competitive and our company is not able to match their selling prices.
- Things are going poorly in the economy. We have no projects, and business is slow.
- We are experiencing the summertime blues. Business is very dull July to date.
- We are feeling more confident about the economy improving. More buyers seem to be more confident and placing orders with increased volumes and deliveries further into the future.
- One huge order has spurred our manufacturing. However, nothing similar is expected in the near future.
- There has been a notable decline in orders from energy industry customers over the past 30 days given the drop in oil prices. There is very little visibility on customer demand in the second half of the year.
- The drop in oil prices in 2015 forced us out of our comfort zone and into new industries and locations. We have found that manufacturing technology from the oil industry applies equally well to defense, aerospace, heavy vehicle manufacturing and power generation. As oil recovers, we will also benefit from working in these new markets.
- The increases in business are small but measurable. We have been trying to add employees over the last six months, with no qualified candidates available.
- Grocery store deli and fast-food chain activity remains fairly slow. We are seeing increased activity, with convenience store remodels driven by increased food offerings.
# And what about this!! I cannot explain it, but we are slower than we have ever been at this time and it seems like we are not the only ones. This is crazy how summer-vacation mindset seems to have set in and companies are just not committing to projects. Most everyone I have spoken to in the graphic arts community is complaining of the same thing. If this doesn’t turn around quickly, there will be some significant cutbacks around here, something that will be very painful, as we are down to only talented workers with no fat to trim. And finally there's this... Washington, D.C, is still a significant contingent factor for a better or worse outlook. Prospects for better are dimming....