zondag 4 juni 2017

Weekend Market Observations

# The SPX is blowing off into the high-energy geo-cosmic 6/2-6/5 turn window as we expected after the sharp 5/18 pullback. We should see a pullback attempt on Monday / Tuesday. We are close to our SPX 2430 - 2450 target for June and are expecting a (5-10%) correction in the SPX from June to July.

# The DJIA, SPX, and NDX all made new all-time highs Friday as the NYSE 52-week new high list spiked higher into the high energy 6/2-6/5 turn window. Despite a weaker than expected NFP jobs report, the markets rolled higher on hopes that the expected June rate hike might be pushed off.
# Gold may have seen a major low on 5/9, and our gut argues that we could see a major break out after the 6/2 NFP jobs report. A daily close above $1308 will be very bullish; we may be close to a major breakout above $1308 by mid-June.
# Silver finished an EW a-b-c decline into early 6/1 and we rallied hard after the NFP jobs report.
# Crude oil declined on Friday as the market worried over OPEC cheating on the production cut agreement and the XLE is at multi-year lows. The pervasive negative sentiment in this sector is becoming compelling from a contrarian point of view.
# The USD is due for a yearly cycle low, but can't seem to rally impulsively on the hourly chart. We may have entered a long-term bear market...