woensdag 7 juni 2017

Wednesday Market Observations

# We are close to our SPX 2430 - 2450 target for June and are expecting a 5-10% correction in the SPX from June to July, perhaps after the June rate hike.
# Overall, it appears that the market is consolidating into the 6/7 testimony from former FBI director Comey. However, the NDX still made an intra-day all-time high before a pullback into the close. Just a corrective decline into Thursday would be bullish for the short-term SPX.
# The most striking move of the day for us was the dramatic break out of the GDX/GLD ratio which is a bullish signal for the PM sector and commodities overal. Across the board commodity weakness in the face of a declining USD and resilient bond prices have cast deflationary pallor over the markets in recent weeks but the big breakout in the GDX/GLD ratio is a signal for "more inflation around the corner". Gold is testing $1300 on 52-wk low bullish sentiment from the 6/2 Whisper Number confidence report. This is very bullish for the short-term. A daily close above $1308 for gold will be very bullish.
# Crude oil rallied but the move higher in the XLE looks like a reversal to us.
# Bonds continue to rally here. This is notable from a contrarian point of view
# The USD continues to weaken in the face of expectations for fewer rate hikes in 2nd half 2017. We may have entered a long-term bear market. The Dollar Index is due a yearly cycle low, but can't seem to rally impulsively. This could become a tailwind for commodities that might be turning higher this week....