*) We hit our SPX 2450 target on 6/19 and we're still expecting a June-July pullback. Still a break above SPX 2454 could extend to 2479.
# The SPX and NDX gave us another "Monday gap-up opening" that got sold (reversal down) during the day. The inability to build on the last two "Monday gap-up openings" shows a waning momentum and looks bearish to us. The breakout/breakdown points are now SPX 2454 and 2431, respectively. We're expecting a high for the year around August 20 (+/-3 trading days), but first there is a chance of a 5 - 10% decline into July. We are cautious in the short-term and feel the market has a limited upside to SPX 2479 and a risk down to SPX 2300.
# Gold declined down to our symmetry target of $1236 and finished an EW 5-wave down pattern on the hourly. With the GDX/GLD ratio showing gold stock outperformance over gold, and very low bullish gold sentiment as measured on Friday, the PM sector looks ready to rally. The GDX finished a bullish EW a-b-c-d-e triangle on 6/21, which has turned us cautiously bullish.
# Crude oil's gave us just a corrective bounce into Friday's New Moon and another lower low looks needed for the XLE.
# Bonds continue to rally.
# The Dollar Index finished an EW a-b-c bounce on the hourly chart on 6/19. The USD did bounce on Monday, but so did gold. This is a bullish sign for gold and commodities....