donderdag 15 juni 2017

Thursday Market Observations

# The SPX traced out a B-Wave test of the 6/9 high before the rate hike yesterday and then reversed down in a C-Wave that may spill over into early Thursday. The Fed threw a lot of information at the market after the expected rate hike yesterday (more rate hikes despite weaker economic data, dramatic balance sheet reductions by year end) still, the markets held up well. We could see a bounce on Thursday. We are close to our SPX 2450 target for June and are still expecting a 5-10% correction in the SPX from June to July/aug.
# Gold just gave us a corrective bounce from the 34-day Fibonacci step out early 6/13 and then plunged after the rate hike to a slightly lower low. We need to see a strong reversal higher by early Thursday or we will risk a retest of the 5/9 lows. We need a weekly close above $1308 for a true breakout. Another failed test of the $1300 level could lead us to a retest of the May 9 low at $1214.
# Silver may have just given us a 3-wave pullback from the high Wednesday; this is short-term bullish.
# For Crude oil; the XLE gave us an EW 5-wave rally from last week's low on the hourly and is consolidating sideways.
# Bonds we're resilient yesterday after the Fed rate hike and guidance on the balance sheet reduction.
# The USD gave us an EW 5-waves down from the 6/9 high. If the bounce is just corrective into Thursday, this will have bullish ramifications for gold and crude oil....