vrijdag 2 juni 2017

Stocks Hit Record Highs; Shrug Off "Transitory" Covfefe In US Macro Data

So stocks looked on the bright side of life's terrible jobs data...


So this happened today; bad news was great news for stocks as shitty jobs data capping a dismal week for US macro sent equity markets to record highs...


It seems fairly clear that Risk-Parity leverage is running the show here on the back of 100s of billions of central bank dollars each month...


"Transitory" collapse in macro data...


Ugly week for 'hard' and 'soft' data (soft data is down 6 of the last 7 weeks to six month lows)...


As Bloomberg's Vince Cignarella notes, a big downside miss by the May jobs report failed to dent probabilities the Fed will hike rates in June, but slow wage growth and tempered inflation reduced odds of further hikes in 2017. While a Fed rate hike in less than two weeks appears virtually baked in, FX and fixed income traders have not fully bought in. The dollar weakened, with the JPY reaching a two-week high, and Treasuries advanced with precious metals after the data showed non-farm payrolls rose by 138,000 jobs vs estimates of 182,000; April’s figures were also revised lower by 37,000 jobs. Some of the weakness in the jobs report may have been due to difficulties adjusting the data for the end of the school year, economists said. All three major stock averages continued to advance. All Greed, No Fear...


The short week started off slow, then exploded into a short-squeeze frenzy as US macro data tumbled...
 

Stocks hit record highs led by Utes and healthcare (not exactly 'bullish' growthy ideas) as Financials and Energy suffered...


VIX pressed down to 9.58 intraday lows (among the top 10 lowest prints ever)...


Trannies and Small Caps bounced off unchanged for the year but Nasdaq just keeps soaring...


Factor Tilts immediately after Trump's election are being unwound dramatically...


Bank stocks stumbled on the week (MS was unch but JPM, GS, and BAC all down 3-4%)...


As the yield curve plunged...


While 2Y was unch on the week, the rest of the Treasury complex surged higher in price with 30Y yields 11bps tumble the biggest weekly drop since July 2016 (right after Brexit)...


The Treasury curve has collapsed with 2s30s at its flattest since early September (and 2s10s at its flattest since early October)...


The Dollar Index fell to its lowest weekly close since before the election...


EURUSD was the week's best performer (among the majors), just outperforming Yuan strength...


Gold rose for the 4th week in a row with some notable intraday surges...


Short week ended badly for WTI and RBOB, extending losses post-OPEC...


Finally, there's this; GBTC (Bitcoin Trust) is trading at a Bitcoin equivelent price of $5110!!! a 131% premium to NAV!!?? Borrow anyone?