woensdag 14 juni 2017

Producer Price Growth Plunges To 27-Month Lows As Shelter Inflation Rolls Over

Following a hotter than expected Core PPI, all eyes were on today's Consumer Price data (as RBC noted is more important for The Fed than PPI) which gravely disappointed the inflation-hoping crowd. Core PPI printed +1.7% (worse thasn expected 1.9%) and the weakest growth since Feb 2015. May 2014 was the last time that Core PPI (Ex Food and Energy) was this high...


With goods prices dropping but services rising. But Consumer Price growth is plunging. Headline CPI dropped 0.1% MoM in May...


Headline CPI slowed from 2.2% YoY to 1.9% YoY (also missing expectations). There is a silver lining for Americans though (which The Fed will hate). Shelter inflation is rolling over...


As RBC warned overnight, if CPI comes in ‘soft,’ will crystalize “slow-flation” and may see consensus begin shifting to a Fed ‘one and done over balance of 2017’ view. The inflation disappointment would see rates again grind lower, while equities trade will revert - back to the prior YTD status quo ‘risk barbell’ trade: long ‘Secular Growth’ and ‘Defensives,’ short ‘Cyclicals’, as if Thursday, Friday and Monday didn’t happen....