donderdag 1 juni 2017

Nasdaq Shrugs Off Commodity Carnage, Retail Crash In May For Longest Win Streak Since 2009

US Macro data at its worst since Feb 2016, 2017 lows for EPS Expectations, Record Highs for Nasdaq, "inconceivable"...


With 5 months down this year, Gold is the biggest winner and 'no brainer' banks are in the red...


May saw US Macro data collapse for the 2nd month in a row, the biggest sequential drop in US economic conditions since May 2011, which was when QE2 was in full swing. (Soft Data was the biggest driver of the drop in macro data)...


But it's not just 'Murica that is struggling with 'real' data, the entire world's economic data is collapsing...


Bonds beat stocks in May...


"Sell In May" for some, but definitely not Nasdaq...


- Nasdaq 100 up 7 months in a row, longest streak since Sept 2009; Gained 20% in those 7 months, best since April 2012
- Nasdaq Composite up 7 months in a row, longest streak since May 2013; Gained 20% in those 7 months, biggest rise since April 2012
- FANG up over 7% this month (cap-weighted), best since Oct 2015; up 6 months in a row.
- Small Caps worst month since Oct 2016
Nasdaq was ramped into the green for the week...


Banks are down for the 3rd month in a row but the barbell trade is now well and truly in place with Utes and Tech surging together (as Retail crashes, worst month since Jan 2014)...


JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs were the worst performers, big banks worst month since Jan 2016...


May saw a non-stop slide in market breadth...


VIX dared to rise above 11 briefly today...


Alphabet made a run for $1000 around the open, but failed. Today was FANG stocks' worst day in 2 weeks (first losing day in 2 weeks)...


Treasury yields extended their decline post-FOMC Minutes...

Treasury yields ended May lower (apart from 2Y's modest 1bps rise)...


With the yield curve (2s10s) flattening for the 6th straight month, and its lowest monthly close since September 2016, Trumpflation is over...


NOTE that since shortly after the initial chaos of Trump's election, G3 central banks have been throwing money at the ,problem as never before and that is lifting stocks (Nasdaq highest beta) and bonds (yield curve collapsing)...


The Dollar Index tumbled today...


To close at its lowest since Nov 4th 2016...


May was a bloodbath for commodities, 3rd monthly drop in a row (most notably China-related ones)...    


Crude fell for the 3rd straight month (and gold gained for the 5th straight month)...


It's been an ugly few days for crude...


And finally, Bitcoin surged 76% in May, its best month since Nov 2013...


This has not ended well...

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