maandag 19 juni 2017

Monday Market Observations

# Triple witching Friday was a quiet affair for the markets after the "market heavy" FOMC statement and news conference on Wednesday. The Fed threw a lot of information at the market after the delivered rate hike on Wednesday and the markets remained resilient. Some of the larger tech stocks starting to show some erosion (AAPL FB, etc). Expect continuation as more stocks start to erode over the next few weeks, the risk/reward is getting skewed to the downside...

# The SPX finished an EW a-b-c correction early Thursday and we are rallying for another test of the SPX 2444 highs. However, we feel that the upside is minimal in the short-term and are not chasing anything. We are close to our SPX 2450 target for June and are expecting a 5-10% correction in the SPX from June to July/aug, so we are cautious
# Gold just gave us a sideways consolidation bounce from the low Thursday morning into Friday's close. We are looking for a 5th wave down into Monday before a bounce. 
# The XLE rallied in 5-waves from the hourly from lows last week and just finished an EW a-b-c correction early Friday. This is short-term bullish for oil.
# Bonds we're resilient after the Fed rate hike and guidance on the balance sheet reduction.
# The USD rallied hard from Wednesday especially after the hawkish Fed guidance....