vrijdag 9 juni 2017

Friday Market Observations

*) The most striking move of the day for us was the (EW a-b-c) correction pattern of gold and silver into the 6/9 Full Moon Timing Window. We added some GLD calls and expect a bounce higher by Friday's Full Moon. Across the board commodity weakness in the face of a declining USD and resilient bond prices have cast deflationary pallor over the markets in recent weeks, but the big breakout in the GDX/GLD ratio on Tuesday is a signal for "more inflation around the corner". Gold tested $1300 on Tuesday and is pulling back correctively into the 6/9 Full Moon Timing Window, this is bullish. We expect, as said, the PM sector to bounce early Friday and a daily close above $1308 for gold will be very bullish.
# We are close to our SPX 2430 - 2450 target for June and are expecting a 5-10% correction in the SPX from June to July, perhaps after the June rate hike next week.
# Crude oil declined in an EW 5-wave down pattern on the hourly chart.
# Bonds pulled back in an EW 5-wave pattern. We should see at least a corrective bounce on Friday.
# The USD did bounce yesterday from an oversold technical condition. This could just be a 4th wave before we get a 5th wave down on Friday....