maandag 19 juni 2017

Dudley Double-Speak And China Cash Send Stocks To Record Highs As Global Economic Hope Crashes

"This is madness, this is the new normal"...


Let's start with this. The data-independent central bank balance sheet and the farce of global equity market strength. Global economic data has not been this disappointing in 15 months, no wonder global stocks are at record highs...


This is the most violent plunge in global economic hope since 2012 and fastest rise in the world's central bank balance sheet since 2011 (up 12% in the last six months). And this makes all the sense in the fucking world. Pumping up the global central bank balance sheet just pumps up the multiple expansion, perfect...


But all major US equity indices closed green today, with Nasdaq the big winner today. This is the best day for the Nasdaq since November 7th...


Helped by a collapse in VIX to 10.01 (but note that Nasdaq Futures cannot get above the highs from last wednesday and flah crash ledge)...


But Nasdaq remains red since Pre-FANG crash...


While FANG Stocks are all the rage, Bloomberg's David Wilson and Citi's Tobias Levkovich have introduced a more 'real' sounding stock-acronym, FANTASIA (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Alphabet, SalesForce, Intel, and Apple), which has retraced 50% of its recent dive...


But FANGs faded after the opening ramp...


And in case you were gonna just shrug that off; how do you think this ends?


As WSJ notes "one client of his had about 40% of his net worth in Apple, directly and across various funds, but he refused to diversify because of his experience with high returns, low volatility and his assumption Apple’s rise would continue. " And on another note of fantasy, while corporate bond prices remain 'high', appetite for corporate debt belies signs of fear seeping into the high-yield market...


As Bloomberg notyes, total open interest in put options for the largest junk ETF has hit a record of almost two million contracts. “With the decline in crude this year, we are starting to see energy high-yield spreads rise,” writes Pravit Chintawongvanich, head of derivatives strategy at Macro Risk Advisors. “HYG’s weighted average spread, meanwhile, has been flat this year.” Fed's Dudley sparked selling in Treasuries early on, but note the dramatic bear flattening...


For the first time since Dec 2007 (when the last US recession started), the spread between 30Y and 5Y Treasuries dropped below 100bps. Even as Fed's Dudley went full hawk proclaiming that halting the tightening cycle now would imperil the economy and a flattening yield curve is not a negative signal for the US economy!


US 2s30s also tumbled...


The Dollar rallied notably today after Dudley's hawkish comments...



The dollar strength sparked selling in crude and PMs but copper ramained bid...


Gold broke below its 200-day moving-average and crude tumbled to cycle lows...


Finally, we wonder if any of this silliness as due to the biggest liquidity injection since January overnight in China?