dinsdag 27 juni 2017

Conference Board Consumer 'Hope' Stumbles To 5-Month Lows

Following the drop in UMich confidence preliminary print for June (as Republican hope fell), The Conference Board's measure of confidence ticked up, handily beating expectations. The present situation index rose sharply but economic expectations tumbled to its lowest since January...


As Bloomberg notes, while consumers are growing weary about the political environment and their chances of obtaining some form of stimulus, conditions in the real economy like low gas prices, rising stock market valuations and a strong labor market remain major confidence boosters. But economic expectations slumped to Jan lows...


But Gallup notes that, among its respondents, Americans' confidence in the economy remains barely positive...


From 2008, when Gallup began tracking economic confidence on a daily basis, through most of 2016, Americans' assessments of the economy were routinely negative, although they became less negative over time. However, last year's presidential election proved to be an inflection point for economic confidence. Last week marked the 32nd straight week the index has been above zero, meaning that many Americans, Republicans above all, continue to feel fundamentally different about the economy now than they did before the election. Still, economic confidence has ebbed and flowed throughout the first half of 2017, with the measure registering an eight-year high of +14 the week after Donald Trump was inaugurated as president and surpassing this in early March with a +16 reading. But in subsequent months, confidence has declined, largely due to worsening attitudes among Democrats. Since May, however, attitudes have largely stabilized, with weekly averages of the index remaining slightly positive. Worse still, Gallup notes that while the current conditions are holding positive, expectations for the future are notably negative...

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