donderdag 1 juni 2017

ADP Employment Surges Despite Biggest Job Cuts Spike In 2 Years!

Despite Challenger's headlines of a 71% jump in job cuts YoY in May, ADP reported a bigger-than-expected 253k rise in employment for May (above all economist expectations) after a big plunge in April.
# May saw the biggest YoY jump in job cuts since September 2015...


But ADP reports a massive surge in employment...

Some more details: Change in Nonfarm Private Employment...


Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment...


*) Meanwhile, Citi quickly poured some cold water on the report, saying "ADP bests consensus but..." This is the type of ADP prints that traders get excited about. The headline rise of 253k blasts 180k expected, with 205k from service producing jobs and 48k from goods. US 10y yields have shot up 1.5bps towars 2.23% on the print, while USDJPY trades higher from the 111.15 area to 111.40. While this move is decent, the risk is that it proves short-lived and as we type, there's evidence that it will. More jobs are great but remember that the market is looking for more money, via a higher Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) print, on Friday. AHE is currently expected to rise 0.2%MoM or 2.6%YoY, while NFP (likely to be revised up following ADP) is seen at 173k. can i add to ADP.
# Citi notes that this is the type of ADP prints that traders get excited about. The headline rise of 253k blasts 180k expected, with 205k from service producing jobs and 48k from goods. US 10y yields have shot up 1.5bps towars 2.23% on the print, while USDJPY trades higher from the 111.15 area to 111.40. While this move is decent, the risk is that it proves short-lived and as we type, there's evidence that it will. More jobs are great but remember that the market is looking for more money - via a higher Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) print - on Friday. AHE is currently expected to rise 0.2%MoM or 2.6%YoY, while NFP (likely to be revised up following ADP) is seen at 173k.