dinsdag 16 mei 2017

Industrial Production Surges Most Since Feb 2014 As Auto Assembly Spikes

Industrial Production rose 0.96% in April - the biggest MoM move since Feb 2014 - dramatically better than expected (and one of the first 'hard' data beats this month). Year-over-year, IP is up over 2% (the fastest growth since Jan 2015). The increase in durables was spearheaded by a large advance for motor vehicles and parts, while the improvement for nondurables was led by gains for food, beverage, and tobacco products, for textile and product mills, for printing and support, and for chemicals. What is most ironic is the 5.1% surge in Automotive production, we suspect that will not be sustained (given Ford's massive layoffs). Ex-Autos IP rose just 0.6%.
# So with "used car prices will drop for years" and amid near-record inventories, a so-called 'plateau' in car sales, and soaring auto-loan losses, Automakers decided to increase production massively in April??


Oil & Gas Drilling also rose 9.0% in April. Notably Industrial Production is still 1.4% below its peak in Nov 2014...


And still below its peak in 2007, but stocks aren't...



It's different this time....