woensdag 5 april 2017

Wednesday Market Observations

*) Turning Point Day; The turn window for this week is 4/4-4/5 which includes the 34-day Fibonacci step out from the 3/1 all-time high for the SPX.
# The SPX finished an EW 5-wave advance into 3/30 and is now doing a small EW a-b-c correction into our 4/4-4/5 turn window, which includes the 4/5 FOMC minutes (and the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 3/1). We are looking for a test of all-time highs by April 15 in the SPX. A failure to make new highs in the SPX and DJIA by 4/15 will be bearish in our view.
# Gold gave us a corrective bounce into 4/4, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 2/8 GDX high. This argues for another leg down Wednesday. We got an important trading low in gold on 3/10 in the Full Moon Timing Window and finished an EW 5-wave rally into the 3/26 New Moon Timing Window, but weakness in the GDX/GLD ratio argues for more pullback in the PM sector after 4/4, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 2/8 GDX high. Patience.
# The SIL/SLV ratio (silver stocks/silver metal) looks weak here and forecasts a small C-Wave pullback in silver after 4/4.
# Crude oil rallied to over $51 and only gave us a modest pullback on Monday and reversed higher on Tuesday. The aggressive sub-divisions higher on the hourly chart last week argue for a substantial bounce.
# US bonds may have finished an EW a-b-c pullback into Tuesday.
# The Dollar Index continues to sub-divide higher as we approach the 4/5 FOMC minutes. This could pressure the PM sector on Wednesday....