donderdag 6 april 2017

Thursday Market Observations

*) The SPX did not give us the setup that we were looking for. Several sectors in the SPX blew off early Wednesday (financials, energy, steel) on the 34-day Fibonacci step out from 3/1. We ESTABLSIHED a B-WAVE HIGH YESTERDAY ON THE DAILY CHART. We may now get a C-Wave down into May/June before the start of a summer rally. We'll see if IRA contributions can rally this market into 4/15 (Tax Day).
# The NDX gave us a Key Reversal Day down as we had one of the biggest intra-day reversals in a year. IRA contributions may hold the SPX up into the 4/15 Tax Day, but we expect more selling after 4/15. However, we are still looking for a yearly SPX high in August before a fall correction.
# Gold rallied into 4/4, the 55-day Fibonacci step out from the 2/8 high and only gave us a 3-wave corrective pullback from the 55-day Fibonacci step out yesterday. THIS IS BULLISH and the PM sector recovered nicely into the close.
# Silver stocks (SIL) underperformed the GDX on the reversal higher yesterday. This makes us a little cautious about yesterday's strong close in the PM sector.
# Crude oil finished an EW 5-wave rally from the 3/27 New Moon low on the hourly chart and reversed down with the SPX. Just a corrective pullback here will be bullish.
# Bonds only declined in 3-waves into yesterday's FOMC minutes before reversing higher. This is BULLISH.
# The Dollar Index reversed down sharply after the Fed minutes. This should boost the PM sector going forward....