vrijdag 31 maart 2017

Stocks End Best Quarter In Years With A Whimper But Gold Is Winner

So Q1 is over and this happened...


Gold wins...

It's been an interesting quarter...
- Nasdaq best Quarter since Q4 2013
- S&P best quarter since Q4 2015
- Dow up 6 quarters in a row
- since The Shanghai Accord (the longest streak since Q4 2006)
- Financials up four quarters in a row
- USD Index second worst quarter since Q3 2010
- Gold second best quarter since Q3 2012
- WTI Crude's worst quarter (and first losing quarter) since Q4 2015
- US Crude Production had biggest quarter since Q3 2014
Nasdaq the big winner in US equities (Trannies and Small Caps melted up to green in the last few days)...


Energy was Q1's big loser, Financials managed to bounce off unch, and Tech was the big gainer...


Only 2Y Yields were higher over Q1, that's with 2 rate hikes-ish...


The USD Index was a one-way trade in Q1, down! And for the month of March, gold also led (though most assets were negative)...


Highlights of the month;
- Nasdaq up 5 months in a row (longest streak since May 2013)
- Dow worst month since Oct 2016 - S&P up 5 months in a row
- Financials worst month since Sept 2016
- USD Index second worst month since April 2016
- HY Bonds' worst month since Oct 2016
- WTI Crude's worst month since Jul 2016
- US crude production is up 6 months in a row
Small Caps squeezed up to unchanged on the month and every effort was undertaken to keep the S&P green for March, BUT FAILED!


Financials were March's biggest loser, Tech the leader again...


Given all the vol in equities and crude oil, bonds ended the month practically unch. Policy Error? 


Treasury yields have been trading in a very wide range for 5 months...


The dollar tumbled after The Fed's dovish rate hike...


Despite USD weakness, commodites all ended the month in the red, with Gold almost breaking even and crude ugly...


And finally for the week (after a big whipsaw last Friday on the pulled healthcare vote), massive squeeze for Trannies and Small Caps...


Massive short squeeze all week. this is the 8th day in a row that "Most Shorted" has been squeezed higher, longest since the election...


Ugly close for stocks with a big MOC Sell order; NOT off the lows...


VIX seemed unhappy...


Treasury yields leaked lower today as Dudley's dovish words sent risk-off, leaving yields unch for the week...


The dollar dropped to a session low in choppy trading after New York Fed’s Dudley said that 2 more rate increases in 2017 seem about right, though there’s no need to hurry given that the economy is far from overheating, but ended the week marginally higher...


Despite the dollar's gains, Crude squeezed over 5% higher on the week. Gold unch...


WTI ended the week back above $50...


And gold above $1250 with Silver over $18 holding gains post Fed rate hike...