vrijdag 31 maart 2017

Right On Cue Atlanta Fed Cuts Q1 GDP Forecast After Poor Consumer Spending Report

Following today's disappointing consumer spending data, we forecast that a downward revision to the Atlanta Fed's most recent 1.0% Q1 GDP forecast was imminent and moments later it did not disappoint, announcing that "the GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 31, down from 1.0 percent on March 24."
The catalyst was as expected: "after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 1.4 percent to 0.8 percent. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.49 percentage points to -0.16 percentage points after Tuesday's Advance Economic Indicators Report from the U.S. Census Bureau." Putting the move in context, the Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP has declinedfrom 3.4% in late January to below 1% two months later....